To EV, or Not to EV?
Can an EV besides Tesla provide gratification? In 2022, 26 brands selling 64 models in 124 EPA rated variants are in contention. That, is the question.
Before 2010, the prevailing wisdom was that Electric Vehicles (EVs) would be nothing more than golf-carts with a roof and doors. Tesla has proved that completely wrong. Every manufacturer is racing to deliver EVs. Of the above list of 124 different variants, 15 are from Porsche, and even 2 are Ferraris.
(Note: Do not confuse a brand’s nameplate ‘model’ with the number of EPA rated ‘model’ variants, despite both being referred to as a model. A brand’s nameplate model is for example, Ford Explorer or Toyota Camry. What is routinely considered variants of trim, such as SE, LE, XLT, GT, Performance, Performance Plus, rear-wheel or all-wheel drive, 18” or 20” wheels, standard or long-range, etc., is enough to affect its EPA Fuel Economy. Therefore each variant is considered a separate model by the EPA. — For example, the single most famous EV brand, Tesla, sells 4 different nameplate models in 13 EPA rated model variants. Ford’s single EV model, the Mustang Mach-E, alone has eight model variants rated by the EPA.)
The previous edition of this column presented a table where anyone could look up the monthly cost to gas-up or charge-up any vehicle. All you need to know is the MPG of the vehicle you are interested in. Gasoline cost in $ per gallon is well-known, and a table of electric rates for your state was included. But what are the various fuel economy milage ratings of EVs?
The most popular vehicles sold in the U.S. are no longer cars, namely sedans or wagons. Now everyone wants a Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV) which some manufacturers call “crossovers” because they look like an SUV but ride and handle like a comfortable sedan. To recap what they get for fuel economy (milage): 10 to 15 MPG for working trucks, 25-30 MPG for full to mid-size cars, 15 to 20 MPG for pickup trucks and big SUVs, 30-35 MPG for compact cars, 20 to 25 MPG for medium and compact SUVs, 35-40 MPG for hybrid vehicles.
Now along comes the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) or EV for short, and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV.) So why is a 35-40 MPG hybrid different ? Two things…
1. First, a plain hybrid does not plug-in. It has a very small battery. The only energy it gets is from electricity captured when braking. It has no effect on the electric grid.
2. Second, the small battery only collects enough energy to help the car accelerate, which is why it’s city fuel economy is better than its highway fuel economy. There isn’t enough energy in the small battery to keep the car moving without its Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) running on gasoline.
The hybrid did get significantly improved fuel economy for a marginal price premium, and the king of hybrids then, was the wildly popular Toyota Prius.
A plug-in hybrid on the other hand does have a big enough battery to drive 30-50 miles solely using the electric motor. That is enough for many short commutes, and every evening at home the car is plugged-in to get charged-up again. If a further range is required, the ICE automatically kicks in. No special action or selection is required from the driver, and 350 miles or more of highway range can be had on the average tank of gas. If further range is required, it can be refueled normally with gasoline.
Introduced in 2011, the Chevrolet Volt was the world’s first and best selling PHEV. It won the MotorTrend Car of the Year, the Automobile of the Year by Automobile magazine, and one of Car and Driver’s 10 Best Cars of the year, the first time any type of electric vehicle won the award. These awards are the Triple Crown and the Academy Award for Best Picture equivalents of car awards. It sold 100,000 units by 2015. It was, a very, big, deal, at least to the automotive media, if not translated into sales.
At the time, EVs had one big problem – range, or lack thereof. A PHEV seamed like the best of both worlds, electric for commuting, and gasoline for long trips without the long delays for charging.
The other problem was the Volt was, alas, still just a car, and everyone wanted SUVs. By 2020 the Volt was cancelled, and Prius sales had dropped to a fraction of its former bonanza.
Throughout the 2010s, technology and market-tastes changed rapidly. By 2020, manufacturers had learned to use more batteries like Tesla, instead of the weight and space taken up by the ICE, transmission, gas tank, and exhaust. Finally, EVs could achieve 250 to even 300 miles of range.
Tesla obliterated the “golf-carts with doors” perception of EVs. Only the weak-selling BMW i3 & Nissan Leaf tried to follow that strategy, sub-compacts, with just 80 miles of range from a small 24 kWh battery when initially released. By 2018 when they were cancelled, the base models still had a mere 150 miles of range. Only 42,000 i3’s were sold in the U.S. The better 2011-2017 Leaf sold 115,000 U.S. units, 577,000 globally, and about another 50,000 U.S. units of the 2nd generation model year 2018-2022 . What grew from those ashes were EVs as luxury cars, SUVs, and most popularly, luxury SUVs.
And then, in the short span of 4 years, the PHEV made a rapid return. It turned out all the SUVs that consumers wanted, needed more batteries than the weight of the ICE, transmission, and gas tank. The price of a full battery EV flirted with $100,000. Suddenly, the PHEV with far less batteries, made sense again. A sub-compact PHEV can now be had for under $40,000.
For 2022, besides Tesla’s 13 EPA rated model variants from 4 of the brand’s nameplate models*, another 25 brands sell 111 EV and PHEV EPA rated model variants, from 60 different nameplate models.
(*) Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y.
2022 Electric Vehicles (18 brands, selling 32 models)
2022 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (16 brands, selling 32 models. 8 more brands)
Some of these vehicles are the stratospherically priced Mercedes-Benz EQS, the Tesla Model X and Model S Plaid, half of the Porsches, the Audi RS and e-tron GT, the Land Rover, and of course, the Ferrari. The fuel cost, or saving thereof, of these few vehicles is irrelevant. Their owners didn’t purchase $150,000 vehicles to save on fueling costs.
The remainder range in price from $30,000 to $95,000 with an average of $56,000 to $57,000. The highest EPA rated fuel economy is 130 MPG-e for the Tesla Model 3 EV and Toyota Prius Prime PHEV, with the lowest being 65 MPG-e for the Audi e-tron EV, and 55 MPG-e for the Volvo XC90 Recharge PHEV, 50 MPG-e for the BMW X5 xDrive45e and the Jeep Wrangler 4-door 4xe. The average EPA Fuel Economy is 90-95 MPG-e.
The average price of a medium sized new EV or even PHEV might be $57,000, but except for Tesla and General Motors Chevrolet that have exhausted their tax credits, and depending on your financial situation, up to a $7,500 federal tax-credit might be additionally available. Some states such as CA, CO, CT, DE, MA, MD, NY, and OR have additional credits around $2,500 for vehicles costing under $60,000. Note especially it is not a mere deduction. It is a bottom-line credit against your taxes due, but for that year only, no carry-over. It applies to new vehicles only, not used.
Toyota will in all likelihood sell the required 200,000 vehicles by March 31 and begin phaseout of the Tax Credit July 1 (with 50% of the credit through December 31, and a final 25% credit from 1/1/2023 through 6/31/2023.) Ford and Nissan should follow by 6 to 9 months.
Also see Every EV that currently qualifies for federal tax-credits and Tracking EV phaseout and sales.
In Comparison
According to Kelly Blue Book the average price of a 25 MPG new 2021 luxury vehicle is now over $47,000, or $43,000 for a non-luxury vehicle. With gasoline as of this writing at $5 per gallon, and based on driving 1,000 miles per month, that amounts to $200 of gasoline monthly.
How does an EV or PHEV that costs $10,000 to $15,000 more (before tax credits) compare? At an even more conservative, lower 80 MPG-e and at the highest mainland electric residential rates of 24¢ per kWh –but still well below public charging rates– it costs $100 to charge-up monthly. Half.
And at a better 115 MPG-e and an average 18¢ per kWh, the cost drops to $50 monthly. A quarter.
Should you live in Bismarck or Fargo North Dakota, with 9 ¢/kWh electricity (or very close, Alabama, Idaho, Nebraska, Washington state, or Utah, with 10 ¢/kWh rates) and have an EV that really achieves 130 MPG-e (4 kWh per mile) the additional monthly electric bill will be $20, one-tenth of a similar gas vehicle.
But remember it is not all roses in EV land. If you charge-up while traveling, or you lack your own garage and parking, and have to purchase electricity at a public charging station such as Electrify America, with approximately 30¢ to 40¢ per kWh rates, respectively at 50 or 65 MPG-e, the vehicle will cost, you better sit down, the same $200 monthly.
Gasoline rates across the country currently vary from $4 to $7 per gallon. Mainland residential electric rates vary from 9¢ to 25¢ per kWh, which is the Gallon Gasoline Equivalent (GGE) of $3 to $8 per gallon, a significantly wider range. And Electrify America charging stations with rates of 31¢ to 43¢ per kWh is the GGE of $10 to $14 a gallon. Some places, electricity is cheep. Others, it can be very, very, expensive.
In an ideal future world, with vehicles that have the potential to cost no higher a price than their current gasoline slurping brethren, and nation-wide EV charging rates of 15 ¢/kWh or less, an EV with a fuel economy of 90 to 135 MPG-e will only cost $50 to $40 monthly for charging. 25% to even 20% of an ICE.
The next 2 years brings 18 more models, including 6 new brands to the game. Only 2 are from Tesla and they are far less-certain than many others, which are coming at a high-voltage pace.
2023-2024 Electric Vehicles (15 brands selling 18 models, of which 6 brands are delivering their 1st EV.)
We might not be there yet, but that would be a future to behold.
As stated in this article, the EPA rates 149 model variants of EV and PHEV for 2022-2024, sold by 32 brands under 80 nameplate models. Below is that list for reference.
Electric Vehicles (EV) 2022 - 2024 25 Brands, 50 Models, 107 EPA Rated model Variants.
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) 2022 - 2024 16 Brands, 32 Models, 42 EPA Rated model Variants.
Images and tables by author.